Chinese New Year Shipping — How to Plan Around the Biggest Supply Chain Disruption of the Year

Every year, Chinese New Year catches importers off guard. Not first-time buyers — they expect some disruption. It's the experienced buyers who've done this a few times but haven't systematized their planning who get hurt. A factory closure they didn't account for, a freight rate spike they didn't see coming, and suddenly a product launch slips by six weeks.

Here's the full picture, and what to actually do about it.

When does Chinese New Year shut down supply chains?

CNY falls on a different date each year (it follows the lunar calendar), typically between late January and mid-February. But the disruption window is much wider than the holiday itself:

• 2–3 weeks before CNY: Factories start winding down. Workers begin traveling home. Production capacity at major manufacturing hubs like Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu drops 30–50%.
• 1–2 weeks before CNY: Many factories fully close. Freight volumes spike as everyone tries to ship before the holiday. Ocean rates surge.
• CNY holiday itself: 7 official days, but most factories close for 2–4 weeks. The exact duration varies by factory and region.
• 2–3 weeks after CNY: Factories reopen, but not at full capacity. Workers trickle back — some don't return at all, which means factories spend early February rehiring and retraining. Full production often doesn't resume until 2–3 weeks post-holiday.

In practice, the effective disruption window is 6–8 weeks. If you need goods produced and shipped during this window, you're either scrambling or paying premium rates to make it happen.

The 6-week rule

Simple and reliable: whatever you need to ship in February or early March, you need to have production completed and cargo ready to load by early to mid-January at the latest.

That means:

• Place your purchase order at least 10–12 weeks before your target in-stock date
• Build in production lead time (typically 3–6 weeks for most manufactured goods)
• Confirm a production finish date with your supplier that lands before factory closure
• Book freight 4–6 weeks early for the pre-CNY window — capacity sells out

If your PO is placed in November for goods you need in February, you're almost always fine. If it slips to December, you're in a race. January POs for February delivery are almost impossible unless your factory is one of the few that stays partially open.

Why freight rates spike before CNY

It's a simple supply/demand story. Every factory in China is trying to ship finished goods before closing, all at the same time. Ocean carriers don't add extra vessels — they raise rates. Spot rates on major lanes like Shanghai to Los Angeles or Yantian to Rotterdam can jump 30–80% in the 3–4 weeks before CNY.

Air freight follows the same pattern, with the added issue that cargo capacity competes with passenger baggage on the many flights carrying workers home before the holiday.

The other effect: blank sailings. Carriers look at post-CNY demand (which drops sharply as factories close) and cancel sailings to avoid running ships with empty containers. This concentrates demand on fewer ships, which drives rates up further and reduces flexibility if you miss a booking.

What happens if you miss the pre-CNY window?

You have a few options, none of them great:

Wait for post-CNY production. Earliest realistic ship date is late February or March. If your goods aren't time-sensitive, this is fine.

Air freight. If you need goods urgently and margins support it, air gets cargo out even during CNY (airports stay open). Cost is 5–8x ocean. For high-value goods with thin inventory, it might be worth it.

Pre-position inventory. The smartest move is to build buffer stock before CNY. If you normally carry 6 weeks of inventory, carry 10 weeks going into January. This isn't exciting advice, but it's what experienced importers actually do.

Building your CNY planning calendar

Work backwards from your target in-stock date:

1. In-stock date: when goods need to be in your warehouse or FBA

2. Subtract transit time: 25–35 days ocean, 5–7 days air, 14–22 days rail

3. Subtract customs clearance: 3–7 days in most markets

4. Subtract ocean transit buffer: add 5–7 days for port congestion or vessel delays

5. That's your cargo-ready date — when goods need to be packed and ready to load

6. Subtract production lead time — this is your PO deadline

If your cargo-ready date falls between January 10 and February 20 in any given year, you're in the danger zone. Either pull it earlier (larger pre-CNY order) or push to post-CNY production.

Communicating with suppliers around CNY

A few things worth confirming with your factory each year:

• What date does their factory close for CNY?
• When do they expect to reopen at full capacity?
• Do they have any capacity to produce during the holiday (some factories in northern China close earlier and longer than those in the south)?
• What's the latest date they can guarantee a pre-CNY cargo-ready delivery?

Get this in writing, not just a casual message. Factories sometimes give optimistic timelines that slip.

The bigger lesson

CNY disruption isn't unpredictable — it happens every single year, in a window you can plan for. The importers who manage it well treat it like a known constraint: they order earlier, carry more buffer stock going into January, and book freight before the rate spike hits.

Use the freight estimator to get current rates for your lane, and check China freight lanes to see how CNY typically affects capacity on your specific route.

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Related: How to cut freight costs from China — booking strategy, volume consolidation, and timing all matter year-round, not just around CNY.